Project for international cooperation on the analysis and assessment of technologies for climate change mitigation (ALPS III; FY2017-FY2021)
ALPS Project（ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable development and climate stabilization）
Conclusion
As for the Paris Agreement, the rules related to the market mechanism have been agreed upon, and the form of implementation has been solidified. On the other hand, it can be said that the focus of the discussions at COP26 shifted from the Paris Agreement itself to the high-level agreement among the heads of state, such as the agreement on the 1.5°C target, the strengthening the 2030 reduction target, or the agreement on individual measures. However, as the British government complained at the end of COP26, there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to whether the world will be able to effectively achieve the goal of 1.5°C, or the goal of carbon neutrality in 2050. It is true that there has been a rapid increase in international efforts to strengthen climate actions over the past year, and there has been significant progress, especially in strengthening economic response through the financial sector. At the same time, we need to keep a close eye on how COVID-19 pandemic, the sharp rise in fossil fuel prices, and the risk of international conflicts will affect the climate actions. It is necessary to keep a close eye on whether the ambitious goals expressed in official international forums are feasible. In any case, without technological and social innovation, there will be no significant reduction in global emissions and no carbon neutralization. It is thus vital to create a socioeconomic environment ripe for extensive innovation.
As an ambitious target does not necessarily guarantee a continuous fight over climate change on the long-term, the compatibility of climate change mitigation and economic growth is indispensable for a truly effective climate change mitigation. Clear guidance and concrete measures, rather than wishful thinking, are needed to deliver steady progress toward "green growth" or a "virtuous cycle between the environment and the economy". Moreover, while there are numerous uncertainties, there is a great need for a strategy that will handle risks in a comprehensive manner. Although we need further insights and deeper analysis, we believe this study offers a relevant framework to pursue "true green growth" and concrete measures, also providing quantitative analysis and evaluation for that.
