Japanese

English

Research Projects

"New Earth 21" Project

Integrated Assessment Model DNE21

Energy Systems Model

"Bottom-up" modeling for technologies on energy supply side and CO2 capture & sequestration

Larger-scale picture (206kB)

An example of the model assumptions can be seen by a click of a part in the picture.


Energy Systems Model
Assumption of Primary Energy Resources and the Supply Costs

Assumption of fossil fuel resources and the production costs

Assumed Fossil Fuel Resources

  Conventional Non-conventional
Proved recoverable reserves Other reserves and resources
Oil 150 145 2,343
Natural Gas 129 265 19,306
  Hard coal Brown coal  
Coal 5,646 599  

Unit: Gtoe, Source: H-H.Rogner, 1997

The production costs of fossil fuels are assumed to increase by the increase of the cumulative productions.

Assumption of renewable energies and the production cost


Assumption of energy and CO2 transportation Costs

The transportation costs of natural gas, hydrogen and CO2 are relatively high. The transportation costs by pipeline depend strongly on the transportation distances.


Assumption of Energy Conversion Efficiency and Facility Costs

Assumption of electricity generation costs

  Unit construction cost ($/kW)
Y2000 Y2030 Y2100
Natural Gas 500 - 1060 500 - 780 500
Oil 270 - 410 270 - 350 270
Coal (De-S) 970 - 2050 1010 - 1550 1050
IGCC with CO2 capture 1240 - 2170 1260 - 1770 1300
Biomass 1230 1000 1000
Methanol 1200 900 600
Hydrogen 1100 800 500
Nuclear 1790 - 2620 1840 - 2260 1900
Elec. storage (water pumping) 1000 - 1500 1000 - 1300 1000
  Unit generation cost ($/MWh)
Y2000 Y2030 Y2100
Hydro & Geoth. 10 - 180 10 - 180 10 - 180
Wind 70 - 340 52 - 251 42 - 206
Photovoltaics 235 - 469 83 - 166 42 - 83

Note: The ranges of the unit construction costs and electricity generation costs are due to the cost differences among the regions and also the cost distribution within the region.

Source: NEA/IEA, "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity: Update 1998", OECD, 1998. etc.

Assumption of electricity generation efficiency

  Y2000 Y2030 Y2050 Y2100
Natural Gas 47.0 54.8 60.0 65.0
Oil 36.0 46.4 49.0 49.0
Coal (De-S) 40.7 46.3 50.0 55.0
IGCC with CO2 capture 36.0 42.6 47.0 52.0
Biomass 24.1 40.6 45.0 45.0
Methanol 44.9 51.6 55.0 60.0
Hydrogen 51.4 54.1 55.9 65.0
Elec. storage (water pumping) 70.0 75.0 75.0 75.0

Note: The unit is LHV-base %. The efficiency of electricity generation of IGCC with CO2 capture includes the energy loss necessary for CO2 capture. Though the efficiencies in the model are assumed for each of the 10 regions, the above efficiencies are for Japan.

Assumption of chemical plants

Energy conversion process Unit construction cost
($/(toe/day))
Operating rate (%) Conversion
efficiency (%)
Coal gasification 203,000 90 61
Natural gas splitting 164,000 90 76
Biomass gasification 193,000 90 52
Shift reactor conv. process 14,000 90 99
Methanol synthesis from CO 113,000 90 62
Methanol synthesis from CO2 126,000 90 62
Methane synthesis 112,000 90 77
Water electrolysis 223,000 90 80-90
Oil refinery distillation 29,000 70 95
Oil refinery gasoline prod. 42,000 70 90
Coal liquefaction 200,000 90 67
Biomass liquefaction 230,000 90 75
Up-grading of methanol to gasoline 46,000 70 93

Note: The conversion efficiencies are the values in the case of electricity generation efficiency of 33%. The conversion efficiency of water electrolysis is assumed to improve as time goes on.


Assumption of CO2 recovery efficiency and the facility costs
  Unit construction cost
($/(tC/day))
Required electricity
(MWh/tC)
Recovery ratio of
CO2 (%)
Chemical recovery of flue gas from electric power plants 56,500 0.927 - 0.719 90
Physical recovery from gasification plants 14,500 0.902 - 0.496 90

Note: Energy efficiency is assumed to improve within the above values as time goes on.


Assumption of capacitis and costs of CO2 sequestration


Assumption of future final energy demands in Reference Case

The model uses the growth rate of final energy demands per GDP, which is derived for each kind of fuel and electricity from B2 Scenario (the original is the medium scenario of United Nations (UN) in 1998) on the "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)" of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The assumed final energy demands for the 10 world regions are calculated by the synthesis of the above growth rate and the GDP assumption.
The assumption of final energy demands are for the Reference Case, and the final energy demands in the case of global warming mitigation or CO2 reduction policy are calculated by the model.

Assumption of final energy demand by region in Reference Case

Assumption of final energy demand by fuel in Reference Case

Assumption of growth of final energy demand (%/yr)

  Y1980-2000 Y2000-2020 Y2020-2050 Y2050-2100
World average 1.4 1.8 1.6 0.8
Japan 2.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.7

PAGE TOP